Remember how Captain Marvel achieved a box office success of $1.12 billion, largely because Marvel strategically released it between Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame? Now, imagine the potential for Spider-Man 4, which is set to be sandwiched between Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars. If Captain Marvel reached the billion-dollar mark under those conditions, Spider-Man 4 could surpass all expectations in terms of box office revenue.
While generating profit isn’t the primary goal—telling a compelling and engaging story is—the two are interconnected. A well-crafted narrative leads to repeated viewings, which in turn boosts box office numbers. This synergy is why Spider-Man 4 can no longer remain a street-level story.
The Shift in Spider-Man 4 Production and Release Plans
According to industry insider Daniel RPK, Spider-Man 4 is scheduled to start filming on May 25th next year and wrap up by October. This timeline suggests a summer 2026 release or perhaps a festive December debut, similar to how Spider-Man: No Way Home was released during the Christmas season. The report also indicates that Tom Holland will film Avengers: Doomsday before he begins shooting for Spider-Man 4. Previous reports have mentioned that Tom Holland’s Spider-Man will play a significant role in Avengers: Doomsday, even larger than his involvement in Infinity War or Endgame, essentially making him one of the main leads.
Spider-Man’s Evolution in the MCU
Tom Holland’s Spider-Man has undergone substantial character development within the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU). He has faced the loss of Uncle Ben, his mentor Tony Stark, Aunt May, and eventually his entire identity. With such profound growth, it would be a missed opportunity for Marvel not to showcase his evolution on a grand scale in an Avengers film. Reverting to a portrayal of a teenage Spider-Man who makes naive mistakes and depends on older heroes would feel repetitive. He’s endured significant trials and is now ready to take center stage.
The Impracticality of a Grounded Story Post-Doomsday
Consider this: Avengers: Doomsday features Doctor Doom as its central antagonist—a billionaire scientist, a sorcerer potentially more powerful than Doctor Strange, and possibly adopting the mantle of God Emperor Doom in the film. If Tom Holland’s Spider-Man is playing a pivotal role in such a monumental story, expecting his next solo film to return to a grounded, street-level narrative seems implausible.
Examining Marvel’s Phase 6 slate, it’s almost certain that Spider-Man 4 will lead directly into Avengers: Secret Wars. To simplify, the storyline from Fantastic Four: First Steps is set to flow into Avengers: Doomsday, which then transitions into Spider-Man 4, ultimately paving the way for Avengers: Secret Wars. With Marvel’s decision to scrap Avengers: Kang Dynasty and shift directions, it’s no longer feasible for Spider-Man 4 to adhere to a grounded plot that disregards the Multiverse.
Sony’s Grand Ambitions for Spider-Man 4
After No Way Home, a street-level story where Peter Parker battles foes like Kingpin or Mister Negative seemed like a solid plan. However, considering the MCU’s current trajectory and the profit potential Sony envisions for Spider-Man 4, a low-scale approach is off the table.
Sony has been advocating for a grand-scale Spider-Man 4 for the past two years. Under the current agreement with Disney, Sony doesn’t earn any revenue from Spider-Man’s appearances in Avengers films. They only receive box office returns from solo Spider-Man movies like Homecoming, Far From Home, and No Way Home. This arrangement means they’re missing out on the massive box office earnings from Marvel’s ensemble films.
From Sony’s perspective, why would they lend Spider-Man to be featured in Doomsday and Secret Wars—films projected to surpass $2 billion in revenue—only to settle for a solo adventure that might not even match No Way Home’s success? If No Way Home had been released in China, it likely would have exceeded the box office record of Avengers: Infinity War. Sony is well aware of Spider-Man’s immense appeal and is unwilling to settle for a lower-scale film while Marvel capitalizes on high-profile ensemble movies.
To illustrate, whenever an Avengers movie is released, the preceding film often enjoys a significant boost in box office sales, as audiences are eager to stay updated with the overarching narrative. Black Panther serves as a prime example. The film led directly into Avengers: Infinity War, where the Battle of Wakanda occurred. While Black Panther would have been successful on its own, its direct connection to Infinity War amplified its buzz and box office performance. Similarly, Captain Marvel grossed over a billion dollars largely because it was strategically placed between Infinity War and Endgame.
The Strategic Positioning of Spider-Man 4
Sony aims to replicate this pattern of success, striving to make Spider-Man 4 one of the most significant Spider-Man films ever produced. They likely desire Avengers: Doomsday to be a monumental hit with a cliffhanger even more impactful than Infinity War. This would create heightened anticipation for Spider-Man 4 to address unresolved plot points. Furthermore, they plan to profit from the subsequent film, Avengers: Secret Wars, by ensuring that events in Spider-Man 4 directly influence the storyline of Secret Wars.
This strategy allows Sony to benefit from Doomsday’s success while also capturing audience excitement for the impending showdown in Secret Wars. Essentially, they aim to enjoy the advantages of both lead-up and follow-up films.
Marvel’s Need for Caution and Collaboration
In this scenario, Marvel must tread carefully. They cannot afford to let an iconic character like Spider-Man feel underutilized. Given that Sony bears 100% of the production costs for the solo Spider-Man films, Marvel has a golden opportunity to craft a narrative that not only elevates Spider-Man 4 but also strengthens the entire MCU. By doing so, they can significantly amplify the hype surrounding Secret Wars. If Spider-Man 4 surpasses expectations with a compelling story, it could potentially add an extra $200 million to Secret Wars’ box office earnings.
Therefore, Spider-Man 4 is shaping up to be one of the most crucial Spider-Man films ever made for both Marvel Studios and Sony Pictures.
Reports Indicating a Multiversal Direction
According to Alex Perez from The Cosmic Circus, With each passing day, it becomes more and more multiversal than street level. At this point, I dare say it’s leaning slightly cosmic than street. This suggests that as Marvel and Sony finalize their pre-production plans, Spider-Man 4 is increasingly embracing a multiversal, cosmic scope rather than a street-level one.
He further mentioned, Tom will get the symbiote suit in the next few years and may keep it for the next couple of Spidey films. As for Tobey and Andrew, I heard that there’s a very strong possibility they show up for an extended role this time around, given the setting of the Multiverse Saga.
This speculation might explain why Andrew Garfield, currently promoting his new movie We Live in Time, was evasive when asked about his future as Spider-Man. When questioned about sharing ideas with producer Amy Pascal, Garfield responded ambiguously, indicating that while he understands the curiosity, he couldn’t provide a definitive answer.
The Emergence of Knull and the Symbiote Connection
The final trailer of Venom: The Last Dance confirmed that the symbiotes didn’t arrive on Earth by accident; they were fleeing from a dangerous entity known as Knull, the God of Symbiotes. Piecing this together:
- Knull is expected to appear in Venom 3.
- Spider-Man 4 is anticipated to be a cosmic-level story.
- Multiple symbiotes will feature in the film.
- Tom Hardy’s Venom is already aware of Tom Holland’s Spider-Man due to the symbiotes’ shared hive mind.
- Tom Holland’s Spider-Man will acquire the symbiote suit in Spider-Man 4.
These elements suggest that in Spider-Man 4, Tom Holland’s Spider-Man will team up with Tom Hardy’s Venom to confront Knull. Given the magnitude of the threat, they might require additional support. Tobey Maguire’s Spider-Man, who has previous experience battling a symbiote, could lend assistance. Additionally, Andrew Garfield’s Spider-Man, who expressed a desire to fight an alien adversary, would finally get his chance. This setup resembles a superhero reunion, with all pieces aligning perfectly.
Connecting Spider-Man 4 to Avengers: Doomsday and Secret Wars
A potential gap remains: How does Knull’s role as the main villain in Spider-Man 4 connect to the preceding Avengers: Doomsday, where Doctor Doom is the antagonist? Daniel RPK provides insight, stating that everything between Doomsday and Secret Wars will take place on Battleworld.
Here’s a theory:
In Avengers: Doomsday, Robert Downey Jr.’s Doctor Doom wreaks havoc across the Multiverse, ultimately leaving Tom Holland’s Spider-Man stranded on Battleworld by the film’s conclusion. Spider-Man 4 would then pick up from this point, with Spider-Man facing off against Knull. During this confrontation, he acquires a new black symbiote suit—different from Tom Hardy’s Venom but still connected through the multiverse. This journey would seamlessly lead into Avengers: Secret Wars, where Spider-Man dons his iconic black suit, mirroring the classic Secret Wars comics.
The Strategic Decision to Embrace a Cosmic Narrative
This projection underscores why Spider-Man 4 can no longer be a grounded story. After No Way Home, Marvel initially planned for a more street-level narrative, focusing on Peter Parker cleaning up New York’s streets. However, Sony consistently pushed for a multiversal spectacle surpassing even No Way Home.
The involvement of the Russo brothers, who are set to direct both Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars, likely played a crucial role in aligning Marvel with Sony’s vision. It was under their direction that Tom Holland’s Spider-Man first entered the MCU in Captain America: Civil War. With the Russos steering this significant chapter, there’s confidence in their creative choices and the direction of the narrative.
Conclusion: Anticipation for the Next Chapter
The trajectory of Spider-Man 4 signifies a monumental shift from a street-level hero to a key player in cosmic events. This evolution not only aligns with the character’s development but also serves the strategic interests of both Marvel Studios and Sony Pictures. As fans, we can look forward to a film that promises to be both epic in scale and rich in storytelling.
